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India’s retail Inflation in September likely exceeded the Reserve Bank of India’s 4% medium-term target for the first time since July, according to a Reuters poll. The rise in vegetable prices and a lower year-ago base contributed to this increase. Heavy rains impacted crop availability, leading to higher prices for food items, particularly vegetables. The consumer price index (CPI) is expected to jump to 5.04% in September from 3.65% in August, driven by these factors. Analysts also predict core Inflation to rise to 3.50% from 3.30% in August, influenced by telecom tariff hikes and higher gold prices.
The data will be released on Oct. 14 at 1200 GMT. Economists expect Inflation to average 4.6% this quarter and 4.5% for the fiscal year, above the Central bank‘s target. Despite benign core Inflation, the RBI could potentially begin cutting Interest rates in December, following the lead of other major central banks. The Fed’s expected rate cuts may create space for the RBI to ease policy with a shallow rate cut cycle in December.
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Emma Collins, graduated in Financial Economics from the University of Chicago in the USA in 2016. She has since worked at an asset management firm in New York, where she specializes in investment strategies and portfolio management. Emma has a keen interest in financial analysis and has published several articles in renowned financial journals. Her work focuses on providing actionable insights to investors, and she is known for her forward-thinking approach to managing financial portfolios.
