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Peru’s Central bank projects that the country’s economy will grow by 3.1% in 2024 and another 3.0% in 2025, expecting a rebound after a 0.6% contraction in GDP last year. Central bank chief Julio Velarde expressed optimism, indicating that the growth forecast may lean towards the positive side.
The bank adjusted its fiscal deficit estimates to 3.3% of GDP for this year and 2.0% for next year, citing lower revenue and increased public investment as reasons for the change. Peru has implemented a rule not to surpass a deficit of 2.8% of GDP this year.
Government assistance to Petroperu, a struggling state oil company, is expected to amount to 0.66% of GDP this year, as approved by the bank. Despite lower demand from China, Peru is projected to achieve a trade surplus of $21.67 billion this year, though slightly below previous estimates.
Inflation forecasts for this year were revised slightly upwards to 2.3%, but remained within the Central bank‘s target range. The government’s growth predictions for the economy are 3.2% for this year and 3.1% for 2025.
Recent data showed a nearly 4.5% growth in the economy in July, marking the fourth consecutive month of expansion following challenges from adverse weather conditions and protests affecting the mining sector last year. Peru, a significant global copper supplier, is currently dealing with widespread forest fires impacting agricultural areas and historical sites.
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Emma Collins, graduated in Financial Economics from the University of Chicago in the USA in 2016. She has since worked at an asset management firm in New York, where she specializes in investment strategies and portfolio management. Emma has a keen interest in financial analysis and has published several articles in renowned financial journals. Her work focuses on providing actionable insights to investors, and she is known for her forward-thinking approach to managing financial portfolios.
