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Australia has adjusted its forecasts for resource and energy export earnings downward due to lower commodity prices and a stronger currency. The country now expects earnings to decline by around 10% to A$372 billion for the year ended June 2025, down from a previous forecast of A$380 billion. This trend is predicted to continue into 2026, with export earnings projected to fall to A$354 billion.
The decline in commodity prices is attributed to slower economic growth in the developed world, driven by higher Interest rates, and weak demand from China, a major consumer of commodities like steel. Iron ore, Australia’s largest export, has been particularly affected, with prices dropping by about a third this year. The country forecasts iron ore export revenue to decrease to A$99 billion in the year ended June 2026 from A$138 billion last year.
Prices for other resources, including nickel and lithium crucial for the renewable energy transition, have also seen declines. A surge in nickel supply from Indonesia has led to the closure of some Australian nickel mines.
Overall, the outlook for Australia’s resource and energy export earnings remains challenging, with ongoing pressures from lower commodity prices and external economic factors impacting the sector.
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SOURCE
Emma Collins, graduated in Financial Economics from the University of Chicago in the USA in 2016. She has since worked at an asset management firm in New York, where she specializes in investment strategies and portfolio management. Emma has a keen interest in financial analysis and has published several articles in renowned financial journals. Her work focuses on providing actionable insights to investors, and she is known for her forward-thinking approach to managing financial portfolios.
