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The Congressional Budget Office projected a U.S. federal deficit of $1.834 trillion for fiscal 2024, marking the highest level in the post-COVID era. The estimate reflects a rise in debt interest costs and increased outlays for Social Security, Medicare, and health insurance tax credits. Despite the deficit being 11% higher than fiscal 2023, it is slightly lower than the CBO’s June estimate of $1.9 trillion.
Vice President Kamala Harris is emphasizing her commitment to fiscal responsibility compared to Republican opponent Donald Trump, vowing to offset new spending with tax hikes elsewhere. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated that Trump’s proposals would add $7.5 trillion in new debt, more than double the $3.5 trillion from Harris’ plans.
Following significant deficit declines in 2021 and 2022, deficits have surged over the past two years, with baseline deficits expected to increase by $22 trillion over the next decade, according to CBO projections. Total revenues rose by 11% to $4.918 trillion, driven by higher individual and corporate income taxes amid strong economic growth. Outlays for fiscal 2024 reached $6.752 trillion, up 11% from the previous fiscal year.
The largest increase in outlays came from interest on the public debt, which rose by 34% to $950 billion, along with higher spending on Medicare, Social Security, and the military. An anomaly in fiscal 2023 involved a $330 billion reversal in costs related to President Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan being overturned by the Supreme Court, which, if not reversed, would have pushed last year’s deficit over $2 trillion.
In response to the deficit projections, the White House characterized the fiscal 2024 deficit as a decrease from the previous year, emphasizing the need to further reduce the deficit by increasing taxes on the wealthy and large corporations and cutting wasteful spending.
Some Republicans criticized Biden and Harris for their perceived lack of fiscal responsibility, with Senator Chuck Grassley stating that their spending agenda has implications for the economy in the long term.
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Emma Collins, graduated in Financial Economics from the University of Chicago in the USA in 2016. She has since worked at an asset management firm in New York, where she specializes in investment strategies and portfolio management. Emma has a keen interest in financial analysis and has published several articles in renowned financial journals. Her work focuses on providing actionable insights to investors, and she is known for her forward-thinking approach to managing financial portfolios.