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Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are on opposite sides in the upcoming U.S. election, with major implications for various industries depending on the outcome. For airlines, banks, electric vehicle manufacturers, healthcare companies, media firms, restaurants, and tech giants, the rules they operate under, potential mergers, and tax obligations could all see significant changes based on who wins.
During Trump’s previous term, he focused on slashing corporate tax rates, imposing tariffs on Chinese goods, reducing regulations, and limiting immigration. On the other hand, Kamala Harris has expressed support for increasing the corporate tax rate to 28% and continuing President Joe Biden’s policies, including cracking down on unnecessary fees in various industries.
The impact of the election on these industries will largely depend on the appointments made by the newly elected president to key bodies such as the Treasury, Justice Department, Federal Trade Commission, and Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
Let’s take a closer look at what a Harris or Trump administration could mean for some of America’s biggest sectors:
Airlines:
The outcome of the election could affect airline regulations, passenger protections, and aircraft manufacturing costs. The current Democratic administration led by Secretary Pete Buttigieg has been stringent on airline consumer protection rules, leading to legal challenges from industry players. Expectations are that a Trump administration would be more favorable towards industry mergers, while higher tariffs under Trump could raise manufacturing costs for aerospace companies like Boeing.
Banks:
Big banks faced increased regulations during the Biden administration, potentially impacting revenue. A win for Trump could result in the rollback of these regulations, benefiting the banking industry. However, uncertainties exist, as Trump’s vice presidential pick has criticized Wall Street banks and proposed capping credit card Interest rates, which could have significant implications for the industry.
Electric Vehicles (EVs):
The Democrats have historically supported EVs and incentives, while Republicans, led by Trump, have been critical of EV adoption. Expectations are that a Harris administration would largely continue Biden’s EV policies, with minimal changes to existing incentives and regulations. In contrast, a Trump administration might roll back emissions standards, incentives, and challenge states with their own vehicle emissions rules.
Health Care:
Both Harris and Trump have proposed changes to the U.S. health-care system to lower costs and improve access. While Trump’s efforts in this area have seen limited success, Harris plans to build on existing initiatives, such as lowering drug prices and expanding Medicare provisions. Specific details on Trump’s plans for health care are unclear, but his previous attempts to repeal the Affordable Care Act indicate a less progressive approach compared to Harris.
Media:
Media executives are closely watching the election’s impact on mergers and regulatory hurdles. While the Biden administration has stymied some media deals, a potential Trump 2.0 may offer a different regulatory environment for industry consolidation. TikTok could face continued scrutiny due to national security concerns, with both candidates having different views on the platform and potential bans.
Restaurants:
Both Trump and Harris support eliminating taxes on restaurant workers’ tips, but their approaches differ. Trump’s plan lacks details and could benefit high earners, while Harris aims to exempt lower-earning workers from income tax on tips. Harris also plans to eliminate the tip credit for restaurant workers, potentially increasing costs for employers and affecting consumer demand.
Tech:
The election outcome will impact the regulation of the rapidly evolving artificial intelligence sector. While Harris has embraced AI innovation while emphasizing public protection, Trump has committed to repealing certain executive orders related to AI safety. The tech industry’s dealmaking landscape could also see changes based on who wins, with potential implications for major tech companies and their acquisition strategies.
Overall, the 2024 presidential election carries significant consequences for a wide range of industries, setting the stage for possible policy shifts and regulatory changes based on the winning candidate’s agenda.
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SOURCE
Emily Jensen, graduated from the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) in the UK in 2015 with a degree in Economics. She specializes in financial markets and international trade. After graduating, she worked as an analyst at an investment bank in London, where she developed expertise in global economic trends. She later transitioned into consulting, focusing on fintech ventures and providing insights into global economic developments. Emily is passionate about the intersection of finance and technology and aims to drive innovation in the financial sector.